Scared witless

Global warming ain't so funny all of a sudden.  Riding up to almost 9000' on the Colorado trail  in early April is fun and all...

But Durangoans recall all too well the fire season of '02 when  Missionary ridge burned ALL SUMMER long.  Nasty.  Then Mike Curiak offered this bit o wisdom yesterday on an MTBR forum about just how bad things can get in an ultra race in a drought year.

Time for a gut  check. 

What are current conditions?

SW Colorado snowpack is at 55% of normal right now:  ftp://ftp.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/data/snow/update/co.txt.

SE Utah snowpack is at 2% (!!) of normal right now:  ftp://ftp.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/data/snow/update/ut.txt

What's the long range forecast?  From weather.com, here ya go:

KTR and GLR could be more challenging than usual this year...I'll be keeping an eye on conditions and a flexible plan.  I'm all for personal challenges, but death marches into sandstorms take the fun right out of it.  It's all about the optimal experience - and if they happen to be in Canada this year then so be it!

Published Friday, April 06, 2007 6:51 AM by Dave

Comments

# @ Friday, April 06, 2007 8:23 AM

I agree with the worries. GLR could be terrible in the wrong weather. How can the SE Utah snowpack be only 2% of normal?!!?

plesko

# @ Friday, April 06, 2007 8:42 AM

The drainages where SNOTEL data is collected in SE Utah are all under 10k', and there just isn't much left at those elevations. Which gives me some ideas, incidentally.

GLR, GDR, KTR - they are really self-supported TTs rather than races. Starting at the same time as others certainly gives it more of a race feel, but there is no "rule" that says you can't just go do it whenever you want to. That's part of why I did the KT last fall.

If the weather keeps on it's current track, it's quite possible the higher elevations of the Tab will be open early May (or sooner). One possible scenario is to go for a GLR attempt the weekend of May 5 rather than do the Payson 24. Something I'm considering anyway...damn, that's right around the corner!

Dave

# @ Friday, April 06, 2007 1:54 PM

This is truly cause for alarm! Another case for motorcycles or my pet project, a Hybrid Hummer.
Seriously, your pic at 9,000 feet should contain some white stuff!

Dr. Woo

# @ Saturday, April 07, 2007 8:33 AM

The SE Utah numbers are interesting. The % of annual precip is at 87%, which isn't too bad, but the snow water equivalent is only 2%? More rain than snow this winter or simply an early meltoff?

dave byers

# @ Saturday, April 07, 2007 9:02 AM

I think it has been a heavy rain year. Well, heavy is relevant. Even here on the Wasatch Front the snow pack is down. The ski resorts have felt the effects of that.

Adam Lisonbee

# @ Sunday, April 08, 2007 9:21 AM

It is scary indeed, especially for those of us who actually know what "fire season" means. While we went through the wettest year prior, and a very wet winter, our snow pack, like yours melted early with a warm and dry March. With monsoons many months off, yikes!

weather.com? Isn't that the company owned by the politcal donor who tried to have a certain Senator pull funding away from noaa.gov. Sheesh everything in politicized these days....

Matt

# @ Sunday, April 08, 2007 3:50 PM

Dave - Matt pretty much nailed it. March was warm and dry. The snow measuring sites (SNOTEL) in the La Sals are fairly low too, under 10k' anyway - so there just isn't much left at those elevations.

Dave